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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.