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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's protracted campaign to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.