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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

But this year's race is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers rising in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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